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back from school 2017 Nov. 2; back to the future

back from school 2017 Nov. 2; back to the future

Suppose these three friends are in the 3rd year of elementary school (age 9) this afternoon as they walk home. That means 10 years from now, at the age of 19 (in the November of 2027), they will have graduated from high school after having survived the entrance exam to high school, and later the entrance exam to college. Not every high school graduate will continue to college necessarily, but the trend is increasingly so.

Projecting 10 years from now, and following the observation attributed to science-fiction writer William Gibson (The future is already here, but it is distributed unevenly), perhaps this section of road will have more signage advertising Building Lots For Sale, like the red one in the center of this picture. And perhaps a few more houses will cover up the productive paddy fields. However, the demographic trend is for ever fewer marriages and ever fewer live births. So even as the proportion of the national demographic pyramid grows top-heavy with citizens above the age of 50, the number of children entering school and from there entering the workforce is declining. So rather than imagine this section of road dotted with a few more single-family houses, perhaps instead it will be the reverse; a few more empty houses and in the afternoon fewer elementary children walking home.

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Photo taken @ 越前市 on 2 November 2017 (© anthroview / Flickr)

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 canon s110, 915, takefu, fukui-ken, echizen city, hokuriku, rural japan, 915, 北陸, 福井県, 越前市, 武生, 田舎, 武生市, elementary school, school uniform, mt. sanri, sanri-yama, building lot, eyeglass frame industry

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