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#1 L'utilisateur est hors-ligne   king(1) Icône

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Posté 20 janvier 2014 - 12:23

Good to Negociate with the South but it seems that Mogadishu is trying to have more time to wait and see how tribal equations in Somaliland will react in the future! The worst is that some Somalilanders have been making terrible mistakes for the last 10 years. Somalilanders who joined Alshabab and others in the Federal Government in Mogadishu are really harming Somaliland's cause.
Negociations have to be more serious, and there has to be a process similar to that of South Sudan!
This means first, Somaliland has to have an autonomous admistration for a period of time and a referendum should be held there to ask people what they want and decide ...
Peace and stability in Somaliland are important for all parties as well as other countries in this region.

Peace!

Ce message a été modifié par king(1) - 20 janvier 2014 - 12:24 .

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#2 L'utilisateur est hors-ligne   ELMI_ Icône

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Posté 21 janvier 2014 - 04:54

Voir le messageking(1), le 20 January 2014 - 10:23 AM, dit :

Good to Negociate with the South but it seems that Mogadishu is trying to have more time to wait and see how tribal equations in Somaliland will react in the future! The worst is that some Somalilanders have been making terrible mistakes for the last 10 years. Somalilanders who joined Alshabab and others in the Federal Government in Mogadishu are really harming Somaliland's cause.
Negociations have to be more serious, and there has to be a process similar to that of South Sudan!
This means first, Somaliland has to have an autonomous admistration for a period of time and a referendum should be held there to ask people what they want and decide ...
Peace and stability in Somaliland are important for all parties as well as other countries in this region.

Peace!

Which people Will vote for referendum ?
Legaly all Somalian Will vote because somaliland is a region of Somalia like Hiran ...
I hope that somiland Will be always Somalia
P.s the constitution of the régime of siad barre HAS not been changed.so everything Will be done according to Somalia constitution

Ce message a été modifié par ELMI_ - 21 janvier 2014 - 05:08 .

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#3 L'utilisateur est hors-ligne   labo22 Icône

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Posté 22 janvier 2014 - 05:41

Voir le messageking(1), le 20 January 2014 - 12:23 PM, dit :

Good to Negociate with the South but it seems that Mogadishu is trying to have more time to wait and see how tribal equations in Somaliland will react in the future! The worst is that some Somalilanders have been making terrible mistakes for the last 10 years. Somalilanders who joined Alshabab and others in the Federal Government in Mogadishu are really harming Somaliland's cause.
Negociations have to be more serious, and there has to be a process similar to that of South Sudan!
This means first, Somaliland has to have an autonomous admistration for a period of time and a referendum should be held there to ask people what they want and decide ...
Peace and stability in Somaliland are important for all parties as well as other countries in this region.

Peace!


Is that a political junkie from the preacher, or mot lance?, in any case Somali-land WAY DHAQAAQDAY!!


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#4 L'utilisateur est hors-ligne   king(1) Icône

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Posté 22 janvier 2014 - 06:10

Voir le messageELMI_, le 21 January 2014 - 01:54 PM, dit :

Which people Will vote for referendum ?
Legaly all Somalian Will vote because somaliland is a region of Somalia like Hiran ...
I hope that somiland Will be always Somalia
P.s the constitution of the régime of siad barre HAS not been changed.so everything Will be done according to Somalia constitution

Only those who belong to former British Somaliland would have the right to vote if there was a referendum I think. Somalilanders declared more than two decades ago, they were no longer part of Somalia. They are still insisting on this now though some of them are not happy with the idea of having an independent state.
It is hard to close the eyes and ignore their rights to be protected from any persecution in the future. Siad Barre had no constitution. He was the constitution in Somalia. In the beginning he tried to play the role of a hero to fight imperialism and Ethiopia. But his intention was to become an absolute ruler in that country and he did succeed for a while...
It seems Somaliland has no other choice rather than being part of Somalia due to so-called (tribal) states (Khatumo state = Dhun-mahante, Maakhir state = Wersengeli, Awdal state = Samaroon and Zeila-Lughaya state = Ciise). This is crazy you know because they aree back to early nineties of last century. At that time, every and each tribe had a factional name(SNM, SPM, USC, SNA, RRA, USF....)

Another problem is politicians who went to Mogadishu to join the Federal Government. Those politicians are playing a negative role in this process because they claim they represent people in Somaliland!
Some people say they have betrayed Somalilanders who were killed In 80s of twentieth century. The victims of the North need JUSTICE...

Ce message a été modifié par king(1) - 22 janvier 2014 - 06:13 .

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#5 L'utilisateur est hors-ligne   ELMI_ Icône

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Posté 23 janvier 2014 - 02:52

Voir le messageking(1), le 22 January 2014 - 04:10 PM, dit :

Only those who belong to former British Somaliland would have the right to vote if there was a referendum I think.

Any articles of Somalia constitution don ´t authorize(Forget former british colononisation).we are Talking about the Somalia Territory recognised by UN

Ce message a été modifié par ELMI_ - 23 janvier 2014 - 02:53 .

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#6 L'utilisateur est hors-ligne   king(1) Icône

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Posté 23 janvier 2014 - 05:47

Voir le messageELMI_, le 22 January 2014 - 11:52 PM, dit :

Any articles of Somalia constitution don ´t authorize(Forget former british colononisation).we are Talking about the Somalia Territory recognised by UN

You are right Somalia is considered as one nation and the International Community deals with the Somali issue as one but this does not nullify history. British Somaliland got independence on June, 26th, 1960. After four days, on July 1rst, 1960, Italian Somaliland became independent and both countries decided to be united and therefore, Republic of Somalia came to existence.
Somalilanders made a big mistake because they did not negociate with the South to have some sort of power-sharing and insure that they would not be overwhelcomed by The South which had more population and resources.
Now they want to correct that mistake. The unity must be based on legal terms.
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#7 L'utilisateur est hors-ligne   labo22 Icône

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Posté 24 janvier 2014 - 03:48

Why Somalia has not been able to create an effective central government for more than two decades? Mainly because the only effective force to be reckoned with has been the US ambivalent policy toward the Somalia, it has been the instrument of destabilization by administering a serious of failed policies. Like any other policy there is always an externality effects meaning the result of unintended consequence, when the conflict has dragged so long it has affected generations of S-landers that has been brain-washed ( Somaliland WAY DHAQAAQDAY) It’s difficult or hard to sell the notion that S-land is part of Somalia again.

What King James (1), his other profession KOOFIYAD DHOOB, is telling the community indirectly the external forces has come to consensus, that the only way forward is to divide up Somalia regardless of their initial intention. King James (1) is quoted saying South Sudan as road map example for S-landers who refuse direct negotiation with rest of Somalia; he even hinted the colonial books and agreement may be revived to advance their cause.

As recently as last election in Somali-land, confusion was created to destabilize Somali-Land and break up into small entities to easily unite the rest of Somalia, and the current government of S-land seems to in agreement for that policy the way that government interfered the election commission and the controversial regional appointees.

The rest of us have no option but to say S-land WAY DHAQAAQDAY and whether King James (1) remain the Nostradamus of our region remains to be seen !!!!!


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#8 L'utilisateur est hors-ligne   king(1) Icône

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Posté 25 janvier 2014 - 11:31

[quote]

Voir le messagelabo22, le 24 January 2014 - 12:48 AM, dit :

Why Somalia has not been able to create an effective central government for more than two decades? Mainly because the only effective force to be reckoned with has been the US ambivalent policy toward the Somalia, it has been the instrument of destabilization by administering a serious of failed policies. Like any other policy there is always an externality effects meaning the result of unintended consequence, when the conflict has dragged so long it has affected generations of S-landers that has been brain-washed ( Somaliland WAY DHAQAAQDAY) It’s difficult or hard to sell the notion that S-land is part of Somalia again.


Somalis are the ones who destroyed their country. If you want to blame others (Americans for example), I think, you have an agenda.

Citation

What King James (1), his other profession KOOFIYAD DHOOB, is telling the community indirectly the external forces has come to consensus, that the only way forward is to divide up Somalia regardless of their initial intention. King James (1) is quoted saying South Sudan as road map example for S-landers who refuse direct negotiation with rest of Somalia; he even hinted the colonial books and agreement may be revived to advance their cause.


Here you are attacking personally and for this I abstain from any comment.

Citation

As recently as last election in Somali-land, confusion was created to destabilize Somali-Land and break up into small entities to easily unite the rest of Somalia, and the current government of S-land seems to in agreement for that policy the way that government interfered the election commission and the controversial regional appointees.

[/
The question is who created the confusion you are referring to? Polticians? the civil society? clans? other countries in the region? Islamists? the international community?
You have to be specific in your opinion.
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#9 L'utilisateur est hors-ligne   king(1) Icône

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Posté 26 janvier 2014 - 12:40

Faisal Ali Warabe of UCID party in Somaliland and Tarsan, Mogadishu's mayor, declared a new episode of civil war between Somaliland and Banadir State last week.
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#10 L'utilisateur est hors-ligne   labo22 Icône

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Posté 03 février 2014 - 03:08

The CIA in Africa and Somalia: A Strategic Analysis

The Last Argument of Kings
On October 31, 2012 by stratagem
The measure of success is not whether you have a tough problem to deal with, but whether it is the same problem you had last year.


John Foster Dulles

Contextual Background

In the last decade, the United States Central Intelligence Agency has greatly expanded its core political and military operations in a number of African countries.

Today, the CIA has permanent missions in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Djibouti, Nigeria, Egypt, Libya, Rwanda and Mali. The CIA's missions are all focused on multiple objectives from combating Al-Qaeda affiliated terrorists to capacity building for African military and security forces. Similarly, the Pentagon's sudden decision to create African Command or AFRICOM is another clear indication that the CIA has made a strategic, long-term organizational imperative to focus its attention on Africa.

Clearly, the CIA growing involvement is not simply just about "regime continuation" and "targeted hits" against America's enemies, but rather is actively involved in expanding its influence over Africa's political infrastructure and economic policies. For example, it is no coincidence that a number of African regimes such as Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of Uganda, Mwai Kibaki of Kenya, Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti, and Hassan Sheikh of Somalia are now actively managed by the CIA. The dictatorial regimes or "assets" are totally dependent on the agenda of the CIA in terms of their continued existence as well as the re-structuring of their economies in the face of domestic and geo-political uncertainties.



Yet, an important question that needs to be asked is: Who is the CIA really worried about and why the deep involvement? Without a doubt the growing presence of China and its military-industrial complex in Africa coupled with the global resurgence of an aggressive Russia under Vladimir Putin, India's interest in creating a "Greater Indian Ocean Economic Zone" have all been cited as underlying causes. Both Russia and China are building up their economic and political influence in Africa to offer an alternative to American hegemony. While there may not be a new Cold War between the West and China, it is also no secret that the Chinese will eventually create an exclusive "African Sphere of Influence" that will greatly limit Western interests. Already Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and Omar Al-Bashir of Sudan have voluntary come under the Chinese umbrella. Interestingly, both the Mugabe and Al-Bashir regimes have avoided direct Western military intervention thanks to Chinese protection.

On the other hand, Western intelligence experts have dismissed Chinese and Russian threats as being prime motivators for the CIA's growing involvement. These experts like Thomas Friedman and Nicholas D. Kristof of the New York Times have argued the real reasons for the CIA's penetration of these weak and ill-governed African countries seems to be neutralizing Al-Qaeda inspired threats, securing potential hydrocarbon and other natural resources for Western firms, eliminating transnational criminal networks, and foster Western-oriented, market-based democracy. The CIA agenda in Islamic majority African countries like Egypt, Somalia, Mali, Libya and Tunisia does seem to be "diluting" the appeal of political Islam and securing natural resources. As well, the CIA has been successful in making sure that China and Russia have not blocked Western intervention which effectively toppled the regimes of Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia, Mohamed Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, and Muammar Gaddafi of Libya.

Analysis

In my view, the worrying trend of the CIA's growing presence in Africa, especially the case of Southern Somalia relates to new model of nation-building. Nation-building and economic development policies in Africa used to be lead exclusively by the US State Department, International Institutions based in Washington such as the World Bank and IMF and the United Nations in New York. Instead, as Somalia shows it is quite clear that the CIA and the Pentagon no longer trust these international institutions or diplomatic players to ensure that African countries will remain pro-West, profitable and not join the Russian, Chinese, and even Indian spheres of influence. Therefore, the CIA has dismissed the United Nations as ineffective and has built a parallel state building model where it controls the structure, personalities, and policies of emerging or weak African governments.

In fact, in the case of Somalia at the moment the CIA has completely taken over all of the country's operations from political establishment to security policy. The CIA has even silenced the unstable Kenyan and unstable Ethiopian regimes from getting involved its current re-structuring of Somalia. The Kenyans are now utterly hapless in Kismayo since the CIA who first sent them has apparently now opposed the creation of any "buffer zone".

However, the CIA is also constrained in Africa due to endemic corruption and weak institutions. In Somalia, it now faces the same peril that confounded the KGB in assisting the dictatorship of Siyad Barre. The KGB could not convince the clannish dictator Barre to reform or even re-structure the Somali national institution other than safeguarding a clannish dictatorship. While the CIA is better equipped and financed than the KGB to control the Hassan Sheikh faction, the CIA does not enjoy much flexibility to ensure its nation building policies will be implemented. The KGB failed to control Dictator Siyad Barre, who had the propensity to run to the CIA for help and vice versa in times of crisis. Hassan Sheikh does not have anyone to run to from the CIA!

Conclusion

As it stands, the CIA maintains comprehensive control over all surrogate regimes in Africa. Since the end of the Cold War and the break-up of the Soviet Union there is no possible rival power active in Africa that would risk offering alternative protection from CIA control to African countries. Chinese economic involvement is a growing influence but it does not have the flexibility or desire to confront American power everywhere. China is having a hard time protecting Omar Al-Bashir and Robert Mugabe, it would not allow itself to be over-stretched fighting American hegemony from South Africa to the Sahara Desert.

Moreover, the current state of affairs in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda serve as case studies of the CIA's new focus on re-structuring African regimes in the long-term. The effective use of Hassan Sheikh's government in Somalia in 2012 will be an interesting case study on whether the CIA is really an effective nation-builder.

That being said, the current re-orientation of the CIA in Africa greatly harkens back to the famous words of John Foster Dulles, former US Secretary of State in the 1950s. Foster Dulles, one of the key architects of the CIA's strategic policy in the Cold War stated that: "The measure of success is not whether you have a tough problem to deal with, but whether it is the same problem you had last year.". In his case, dictators and countries that were a problem for the CIA in one year such as Iran, Guatemala, Iraq, and Egypt were actively neutralized the following year.

Today. will the CIA have the same problem in Somalia that it had since 1960? In my view, the CIA has shown that it has a lot of work to do to safeguard its assets and risk management in the 21st century. Today, Somalia is the beginning of dealing with its long-term problems in Africa

@ King James (1)


Can who is running Somalia and other weak, ill-governed African countries in the region?

SHEEKADA S-LAND WAA QAWQAWDA MAQASHII


Mon lien

Ce message a été modifié par labo22 - 03 février 2014 - 03:11 .

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#11 L'utilisateur est hors-ligne   king(1) Icône

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Posté 12 février 2014 - 09:25

Voir le messagelabo22, le 03 February 2014 - 12:08 AM, dit :

The CIA in Africa and Somalia: A Strategic Analysis

The Last Argument of Kings
On October 31, 2012 by stratagem
The measure of success is not whether you have a tough problem to deal with, but whether it is the same problem you had last year.


John Foster Dulles

Contextual Background

In the last decade, the United States Central Intelligence Agency has greatly expanded its core political and military operations in a number of African countries.

Today, the CIA has permanent missions in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Djibouti, Nigeria, Egypt, Libya, Rwanda and Mali. The CIA's missions are all focused on multiple objectives from combating Al-Qaeda affiliated terrorists to capacity building for African military and security forces. Similarly, the Pentagon's sudden decision to create African Command or AFRICOM is another clear indication that the CIA has made a strategic, long-term organizational imperative to focus its attention on Africa.

Clearly, the CIA growing involvement is not simply just about "regime continuation" and "targeted hits" against America's enemies, but rather is actively involved in expanding its influence over Africa's political infrastructure and economic policies. For example, it is no coincidence that a number of African regimes such as Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of Uganda, Mwai Kibaki of Kenya, Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti, and Hassan Sheikh of Somalia are now actively managed by the CIA. The dictatorial regimes or "assets" are totally dependent on the agenda of the CIA in terms of their continued existence as well as the re-structuring of their economies in the face of domestic and geo-political uncertainties.



Yet, an important question that needs to be asked is: Who is the CIA really worried about and why the deep involvement? Without a doubt the growing presence of China and its military-industrial complex in Africa coupled with the global resurgence of an aggressive Russia under Vladimir Putin, India's interest in creating a "Greater Indian Ocean Economic Zone" have all been cited as underlying causes. Both Russia and China are building up their economic and political influence in Africa to offer an alternative to American hegemony. While there may not be a new Cold War between the West and China, it is also no secret that the Chinese will eventually create an exclusive "African Sphere of Influence" that will greatly limit Western interests. Already Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and Omar Al-Bashir of Sudan have voluntary come under the Chinese umbrella. Interestingly, both the Mugabe and Al-Bashir regimes have avoided direct Western military intervention thanks to Chinese protection.

On the other hand, Western intelligence experts have dismissed Chinese and Russian threats as being prime motivators for the CIA's growing involvement. These experts like Thomas Friedman and Nicholas D. Kristof of the New York Times have argued the real reasons for the CIA's penetration of these weak and ill-governed African countries seems to be neutralizing Al-Qaeda inspired threats, securing potential hydrocarbon and other natural resources for Western firms, eliminating transnational criminal networks, and foster Western-oriented, market-based democracy. The CIA agenda in Islamic majority African countries like Egypt, Somalia, Mali, Libya and Tunisia does seem to be "diluting" the appeal of political Islam and securing natural resources. As well, the CIA has been successful in making sure that China and Russia have not blocked Western intervention which effectively toppled the regimes of Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia, Mohamed Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, and Muammar Gaddafi of Libya.

Analysis

In my view, the worrying trend of the CIA's growing presence in Africa, especially the case of Southern Somalia relates to new model of nation-building. Nation-building and economic development policies in Africa used to be lead exclusively by the US State Department, International Institutions based in Washington such as the World Bank and IMF and the United Nations in New York. Instead, as Somalia shows it is quite clear that the CIA and the Pentagon no longer trust these international institutions or diplomatic players to ensure that African countries will remain pro-West, profitable and not join the Russian, Chinese, and even Indian spheres of influence. Therefore, the CIA has dismissed the United Nations as ineffective and has built a parallel state building model where it controls the structure, personalities, and policies of emerging or weak African governments.

In fact, in the case of Somalia at the moment the CIA has completely taken over all of the country's operations from political establishment to security policy. The CIA has even silenced the unstable Kenyan and unstable Ethiopian regimes from getting involved its current re-structuring of Somalia. The Kenyans are now utterly hapless in Kismayo since the CIA who first sent them has apparently now opposed the creation of any "buffer zone".

However, the CIA is also constrained in Africa due to endemic corruption and weak institutions. In Somalia, it now faces the same peril that confounded the KGB in assisting the dictatorship of Siyad Barre. The KGB could not convince the clannish dictator Barre to reform or even re-structure the Somali national institution other than safeguarding a clannish dictatorship. While the CIA is better equipped and financed than the KGB to control the Hassan Sheikh faction, the CIA does not enjoy much flexibility to ensure its nation building policies will be implemented. The KGB failed to control Dictator Siyad Barre, who had the propensity to run to the CIA for help and vice versa in times of crisis. Hassan Sheikh does not have anyone to run to from the CIA!

Conclusion

As it stands, the CIA maintains comprehensive control over all surrogate regimes in Africa. Since the end of the Cold War and the break-up of the Soviet Union there is no possible rival power active in Africa that would risk offering alternative protection from CIA control to African countries. Chinese economic involvement is a growing influence but it does not have the flexibility or desire to confront American power everywhere. China is having a hard time protecting Omar Al-Bashir and Robert Mugabe, it would not allow itself to be over-stretched fighting American hegemony from South Africa to the Sahara Desert.

Moreover, the current state of affairs in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Uganda serve as case studies of the CIA's new focus on re-structuring African regimes in the long-term. The effective use of Hassan Sheikh's government in Somalia in 2012 will be an interesting case study on whether the CIA is really an effective nation-builder.

That being said, the current re-orientation of the CIA in Africa greatly harkens back to the famous words of John Foster Dulles, former US Secretary of State in the 1950s. Foster Dulles, one of the key architects of the CIA's strategic policy in the Cold War stated that: "The measure of success is not whether you have a tough problem to deal with, but whether it is the same problem you had last year.". In his case, dictators and countries that were a problem for the CIA in one year such as Iran, Guatemala, Iraq, and Egypt were actively neutralized the following year.

Today. will the CIA have the same problem in Somalia that it had since 1960? In my view, the CIA has shown that it has a lot of work to do to safeguard its assets and risk management in the 21st century. Today, Somalia is the beginning of dealing with its long-term problems in Africa

@ King James (1)


Can who is running Somalia and other weak, ill-governed African countries in the region?

SHEEKADA S-LAND WAA QAWQAWDA MAQASHII


Mon lien

Nothing is new here except you deliberately associate King (1) with those smart guys :P I am flattered, truly flattered. So be careful next time because I may be watching you shaving your barbe with my heavenly eyes (drones)in the sky :lol:
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#12 L'utilisateur est hors-ligne   labo22 Icône

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Posté 13 février 2014 - 02:11

Voir le messageking(1), le 12 February 2014 - 09:25 AM, dit :

Nothing is new here except you deliberately associate King (1) with those smart guys :P I am flattered, truly flattered. So be careful next time because I may be watching you shaving your barbe with my heavenly eyes (drones)in the sky :lol:


For shaving, Nooo shariifan, Nooo naciiman, Nikii garan baa garan!

Somalis got use to it by now, everything that fly except DAYRN ABAABIL, from COOMADI CADHADHACLEH (de Havilland 9A planes), CAASHAWAAL (F15),……to CIRKASOODHAC (drones), they have seen them all. For King James (1) it's a joke and part of the western interest chess game that s/he subscribed to.

It's not right to respond to terrorism by terrorizing other people. And furthermore, it's not going to help. Then you might say, "Yes, it's terrorizing people, but it's worth doing because it will end terrorism." But how much common sense does it take to know that you cannot end terrorism by indiscriminately dropping bombs?


HOWARD ZINN, Terrorism and War

Ce message a été modifié par labo22 - 13 février 2014 - 02:14 .

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